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Uttar Pradesh Election Opinion Poll 2017
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Uttar Pradesh Election Opinion Poll 2017

Saurav Khanduri
Saurav Khanduri Published December 23, 2016
Last updated: 2016/12/23 at 5:16 PM
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Uttar Pradesh Election Opinion Poll: Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh will be held at the beginning 2017 and the political parties have estimated how much seats they are going to win Well, Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) is expecting to win 171-183 seats according to India Today-Axis opinion poll.

Contents
Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll by VDP AssociatesPercentage of votes by Caste and ReligionOpinion Poll survey by ABP NewsRegion wise Break UpUP Opinion Poll by VDPA AssociatesABP News-Cicero Opinion pollOpinion Poll by Parliament Magazine

 On the other hand, the opinion polls suggest that Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is likely to grab 115-124 seats, the existing  Samajwadi party is expected to win a 94-103 seat in the state’s assembly polls.

At the same time, Congress who announced Sheila Dixit as chief ministerial candidate in UP will hardly bags the seats in double digit. It seems that no single party will come in the majority. If the opinion polls turn out to be true, UP will surely have a hung assembly.  A total number of assembly seats in the UP are 403 and 202 seats are required for a majority in the elections.

Let’s have a glance at various surveys conducted by several agencies for Uttar Pradesh opinion Poll:

India Today-Axis My India UP Opinion Poll (Aaj Tak)

 

Party Seats Vote Share %
BJP 170-183 31
SP 115-124 25
BSP 94-103 28
INC 8-12 6
Others 2-6 10

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll by VDP Associates

According to the Up opinion poll by VDP associates BJP might win 190 seats in upcoming assembly polls. SP will win 111 seats and remained second and unable to retain their CM post in 2017 elections. Talking about BSP, It will bag at least 87seats and INC will win 3seats.

Party Name No. Of Seats % Share
BJP 190 31%
SP 111 27%
BSP 87 24%
INC 5 5%

C-Voter UP Opinion Poll

C-voter opinion on that indicates that BJP and SP will be on the same number of seats and it predicts a hung assembly in upcoming elections. BSP will grab the third position and no hope for Congress. The poll was surveyed on20462 voters of 403 assemblies and it was released on 2 September 2016.

Party 2012 Seats 2016 Seats Vote %
BJP 47 134-150 27.79%
SP 224 133-149 27.51%
BSP 80 95-111 25.44%
INC 28  5-13 6.19%
Others 27  4-12 7.00%

Percentage of votes by Caste and Religion

Caste and religion play a vital role in the elections, especially when it comes to

Caste /Religion INC BJP BSP SP Others
Muslims 12.60% 2.70% 21.70% 50.20% 12.80%
Brahmins 10.80% 53.70% 10.30% 14.00% 11.20%
Thakur/Rajput 3.80% 54.40% 9.90% 19.40% 12.50%
Kaystha 4.60% 44.30% 6.90% 22.90% 21.40%
Vaishya/Baniya 5.80% 61.40% 6.80% 16.40% 9.60%
Dalits 5.30% 25.70% 44.20% 14.50% 10.20%
Yadavs 1.60% 12.10% 10.70% 65.60% 10.00%
Kurmi 1.30% 46.40% 8.90% 27.40% 16.10%
Jaat 1.40% 37.90% 16.50% 7.40% 36.70%
OBC (Others) 4.60% 39.50% 15.80% 23.40% 16.70%

Opinion Poll survey by ABP News

Party Actual Vote % In The 2012 Election Actual Seats In The 2012 Elections Forecast Vote % As Per Opinion Poll Mar 2016 Forecast Seats As Per Opinion Poll Mar 2016
SP (Samajwadi Party) 30.1 228 23 80
BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) 24.8 80 31 185
BJP (Bhartiya Janta Party) 15.3 42 24 120
IND and Others 15 15 11 5
INC (Indian National Congress) 11.5 29 11 13
RLD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) 2.3 8 0 0
AD (Apna Dal) 1 1 0 0
Total 100 403 100 403

According to ABP survey, BSP will emerge as a big party with a maximum number of seats (185) and will also very close to form a government in the state. There will be sad news of existing party SP that will grab only 80 seats if elections held today. Well, there is some good news for BJP that it is clearly away from the majority of 202 seats. BJP will able to manage to confirm victory on 120 seats as compared to previous elections when it had got 42 seats. Indian national Congress will win only13 seats as compare to 29seatsof 2012 assembly election of Uttar Pradesh. Independent and other parties may win 5 seats.

Region wise Break Up

Party Avadh Pradesh Bundelkhand Paschim Pradesh Purvanchal Total
BJP+ 19 5 32 64 120
BSP 31 11 30 63 185
INC+ 1 1 3 8 13
SP 12 2 23 38 80
IND and Others 0 0 2 3 5
Total 63 19 145 176 403

Paschim Uttar Pradesh has the most number of seats, followed by Purvanchal and no any party wants to lose the chance of getting more on more seats from these regions.

UP Opinion Poll by VDPA Associates

 

Seat Forecast In July 2016 Vote % Forecast In July 2016 Seats In 2012 Vote % In 2012
Party Seats Vote % Seats Vote %
BSP 165 29.8 80 25.9
BJP+ 149 28.5 47 15
SP 68 22 224 29.1
INC 8 8.1 28 11.6
Total 390 88.4 379 81.6

According to VDPA Associates opinion Poll, BSP is again going to win a maximum number of seats 165 and BJP alliance will bag 149 seats. The Main fight will be in BJP and BSP. Ruling party SP will manage to get 68 seats and INC will hardly get 8 seats.

ABP News-Cicero Opinion poll

The survey was conducted on one thousand people of the 11 assembly constituencies of UP on 24 July and 25 July 2016. When it comes to the best chief ministerial candidate, Akhilesh Yadav is the first choice of the people as a chief minister with 28%votes.  Other side Mayawati got the second position with25 percent votes. 17 percent people prefer Yogi Adityanath, 6percent votes with Keshav Prasad Maurya and only 5 percent voters preferred Sheila Dixit. 8 percent remained with other candidate and 11 percent voters chose nobody.

Opinion Poll by Parliament Magazine

Party Seat Projection
SP 150
BSP 89
BJP 88
INC 13

The latest opinion polls conducted by a monthly magazine on a sample of 25,000 voters of Uttar Pradesh, which suggests the ruling party in the state “Samajwadi” is going to lose the elections. On the other hand, the performance of Akhilesh Yadav got 28 percent marks for good, 33 percent for average and for bad -39percent.  28percent voters want to see Mayawati as a next Cm, 25percent wants Akhilesh as a CM and astonishingly 23percent voters want Varun Gandhi as a CM.

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TAGGED: Caste and Religion, Opinion polls, Survey conducted by agencies, UP opinion poll 2017, Uttar pradesh assembly polls

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Saurav Khanduri December 23, 2016
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