Uttar Pradesh Election Opinion Poll: Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh will be held at the beginning 2017 and the political parties have estimated how much seats they are going to win Well, Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) is expecting to win 171-183 seats according to India Today-Axis opinion poll.
On the other hand, the opinion polls suggest that Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is likely to grab 115-124 seats, the existing Samajwadi party is expected to win a 94-103 seat in the state’s assembly polls.
At the same time, Congress who announced Sheila Dixit as chief ministerial candidate in UP will hardly bags the seats in double digit. It seems that no single party will come in the majority. If the opinion polls turn out to be true, UP will surely have a hung assembly. A total number of assembly seats in the UP are 403 and 202 seats are required for a majority in the elections.
Let’s have a glance at various surveys conducted by several agencies for Uttar Pradesh opinion Poll:
India Today-Axis My India UP Opinion Poll (Aaj Tak)
| Party | Seats | Vote Share % |
| BJP | 170-183 | 31 |
| SP | 115-124 | 25 |
| BSP | 94-103 | 28 |
| INC | 8-12 | 6 |
| Others | 2-6 | 10 |
Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll by VDP Associates
According to the Up opinion poll by VDP associates BJP might win 190 seats in upcoming assembly polls. SP will win 111 seats and remained second and unable to retain their CM post in 2017 elections. Talking about BSP, It will bag at least 87seats and INC will win 3seats.
| Party Name | No. Of Seats | % Share |
| BJP | 190 | 31% |
| SP | 111 | 27% |
| BSP | 87 | 24% |
| INC | 5 | 5% |
C-Voter UP Opinion Poll
C-voter opinion on that indicates that BJP and SP will be on the same number of seats and it predicts a hung assembly in upcoming elections. BSP will grab the third position and no hope for Congress. The poll was surveyed on20462 voters of 403 assemblies and it was released on 2 September 2016.
| Party | 2012 Seats | 2016 Seats | Vote % |
| BJP | 47 | 134-150 | 27.79% |
| SP | 224 | 133-149 | 27.51% |
| BSP | 80 | 95-111 | 25.44% |
| INC | 28 | 5-13 | 6.19% |
| Others | 27 | 4-12 | 7.00% |
Percentage of votes by Caste and Religion
Caste and religion play a vital role in the elections, especially when it comes to
| Caste /Religion | INC | BJP | BSP | SP | Others |
| Muslims | 12.60% | 2.70% | 21.70% | 50.20% | 12.80% |
| Brahmins | 10.80% | 53.70% | 10.30% | 14.00% | 11.20% |
| Thakur/Rajput | 3.80% | 54.40% | 9.90% | 19.40% | 12.50% |
| Kaystha | 4.60% | 44.30% | 6.90% | 22.90% | 21.40% |
| Vaishya/Baniya | 5.80% | 61.40% | 6.80% | 16.40% | 9.60% |
| Dalits | 5.30% | 25.70% | 44.20% | 14.50% | 10.20% |
| Yadavs | 1.60% | 12.10% | 10.70% | 65.60% | 10.00% |
| Kurmi | 1.30% | 46.40% | 8.90% | 27.40% | 16.10% |
| Jaat | 1.40% | 37.90% | 16.50% | 7.40% | 36.70% |
| OBC (Others) | 4.60% | 39.50% | 15.80% | 23.40% | 16.70% |
Opinion Poll survey by ABP News
| Party | Actual Vote % In The 2012 Election | Actual Seats In The 2012 Elections | Forecast Vote % As Per Opinion Poll Mar 2016 | Forecast Seats As Per Opinion Poll Mar 2016 |
| SP (Samajwadi Party) | 30.1 | 228 | 23 | 80 |
| BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) | 24.8 | 80 | 31 | 185 |
| BJP (Bhartiya Janta Party) | 15.3 | 42 | 24 | 120 |
| IND and Others | 15 | 15 | 11 | 5 |
| INC (Indian National Congress) | 11.5 | 29 | 11 | 13 |
| RLD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) | 2.3 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| AD (Apna Dal) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 100 | 403 | 100 | 403 |
According to ABP survey, BSP will emerge as a big party with a maximum number of seats (185) and will also very close to form a government in the state. There will be sad news of existing party SP that will grab only 80 seats if elections held today. Well, there is some good news for BJP that it is clearly away from the majority of 202 seats. BJP will able to manage to confirm victory on 120 seats as compared to previous elections when it had got 42 seats. Indian national Congress will win only13 seats as compare to 29seatsof 2012 assembly election of Uttar Pradesh. Independent and other parties may win 5 seats.
Region wise Break Up
| Party | Avadh Pradesh | Bundelkhand | Paschim Pradesh | Purvanchal | Total |
| BJP+ | 19 | 5 | 32 | 64 | 120 |
| BSP | 31 | 11 | 30 | 63 | 185 |
| INC+ | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 |
| SP | 12 | 2 | 23 | 38 | 80 |
| IND and Others | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Total | 63 | 19 | 145 | 176 | 403 |
Paschim Uttar Pradesh has the most number of seats, followed by Purvanchal and no any party wants to lose the chance of getting more on more seats from these regions.
UP Opinion Poll by VDPA Associates
| Seat Forecast In July 2016 | Vote % Forecast In July 2016 | Seats In 2012 | Vote % In 2012 | |
| Party | Seats | Vote % | Seats | Vote % |
| BSP | 165 | 29.8 | 80 | 25.9 |
| BJP+ | 149 | 28.5 | 47 | 15 |
| SP | 68 | 22 | 224 | 29.1 |
| INC | 8 | 8.1 | 28 | 11.6 |
| Total | 390 | 88.4 | 379 | 81.6 |
According to VDPA Associates opinion Poll, BSP is again going to win a maximum number of seats 165 and BJP alliance will bag 149 seats. The Main fight will be in BJP and BSP. Ruling party SP will manage to get 68 seats and INC will hardly get 8 seats.
ABP News-Cicero Opinion poll
The survey was conducted on one thousand people of the 11 assembly constituencies of UP on 24 July and 25 July 2016. When it comes to the best chief ministerial candidate, Akhilesh Yadav is the first choice of the people as a chief minister with 28%votes. Other side Mayawati got the second position with25 percent votes. 17 percent people prefer Yogi Adityanath, 6percent votes with Keshav Prasad Maurya and only 5 percent voters preferred Sheila Dixit. 8 percent remained with other candidate and 11 percent voters chose nobody.
Opinion Poll by Parliament Magazine
| Party | Seat Projection |
| SP | 150 |
| BSP | 89 |
| BJP | 88 |
| INC | 13 |
The latest opinion polls conducted by a monthly magazine on a sample of 25,000 voters of Uttar Pradesh, which suggests the ruling party in the state “Samajwadi” is going to lose the elections. On the other hand, the performance of Akhilesh Yadav got 28 percent marks for good, 33 percent for average and for bad -39percent. 28percent voters want to see Mayawati as a next Cm, 25percent wants Akhilesh as a CM and astonishingly 23percent voters want Varun Gandhi as a CM.